zoom losing market share

Customer account growth was also lackluster, which is a leading indicator of revenue growth. Once again the determinants of success are the price point and the ability to integrate with existing systems. Despite the revenue beat, the stock fell by 14% after the earnings release. We want to hear from you. Invest better with The Motley Fool. At the most basic level, customers only need to share a link and ensure their participants have web browsers. On the other hand, it seemed impossible that Tesla (TSLA) would exceed $1 trillion in market cap. By Jason Cohen April 9, 2021 Remote work has. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Their CEO seems to be an executor who has deep industry experience from his time as a senior engineer at Webex, and they have overcome significant hurdles in adapting to such a sudden increase in user base; something especially impressive given their architectural reliance on distributed physical data centres. In Taiwan, the Hakka community of Gaoyuan in Taoyuan City, where a traditional farm pond was recently transformed into a public, multi-functional UA resource, is widely regarded . Zoom is in a very unusual post-pandemic position. Citi analysts downgraded the stock and said Zoom's outlook was worse than they anticipated. However, we all know that 300%+ growth is not sustainable, and tough YoY comps will inevitably lead to disappointing YoY growth. as a medium-conviction short over a 6-12 month time horizon. Because, again, it fits very well to our company vision. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). 1. It only makes sense that as pandemic lockdowns eased and Zoom's temporary surge in growth faded, investors would begin to cool on the stock. Last year, Gartner estimated that about half of all of these white-collar workers, about one billion people, had adopted a hybrid or fully remote working model. The Crypto Exchange Funds Collapse Explained. The work-from-home experiment proved to be feasible and more employees now prefer hybrid/remote working models. Not sure where $330 billion comes from, but you get the idea, right. Of course, peers such as Google Meet ( GOOG) and Microsoft Teams ( MSFT) saw. And metaverse will play a big role for our future innovation. Many professionals regularly use multiple videoconferencing solutions to interface with different people in their network, particularly when it comes to external contacts. The silver lining is that large customer growth remains robust, although not as spectacular as the prior quarter. Global unified communications and collaboration market share from 2nd quarter 2020 to 2nd . The analysts believe the most likely scenario is that about 75% of these people will be working away from the office at least part of the time by 2026. Its price-to-earnings ratio of 34 is less than that of a consumer goods company like Nike, despite growing EPS at a triple-digit percentage rate. Not really at the moment, a growth company. The sudden deceleration in growth caught investors by surprise which caused the stock to plummet (which was trading at nosebleed valuations in the first place). But Zoom the videoconferencing company eventually became synonymous with video chatting, just as Skype had been the previous decade. Given Zooms growth potential and market leadership position, it seems that Zoom is fairly valued, although overall market sentiment on growth stocks may further weigh down on the stock. ARK talks to management teams of the companies they hold which can be a double-edged sword. Gartner recognizes Zoom as a leader for Meeting Solutions and UCaaS its market position as a reputable service provider solidifies its growth thesis in the years to come. Shares of Zoom closed down 16% on Tuesday, a day after the company released second-quarter results that missed analyst's revenue estimates. The market clearly didnt like the slowdown in growth. For the full fiscal year, Zoom is estimating revenue of between $4.53 billion and $4.55 billion. Heres how CEO, Eric Yuan responded: First of all, we like metaverse because our team already worked on that for a while. Where Will Zoom Video Communications Stock Be in 1 Year? At this stage, platforms will struggle to create a more realistic virtual meeting experience without supplying and/or supporting dedicated hardware. There is no vital data which would present a challenge to migrate, and no specific learning curve to give up. As COVID-19 strongly accelerated work-from-home trends, Zoom's aggressive pricing and innovative architecture created a flawless product-market fit. Some of it will simply shift buckets from the $1.4 trillion currently spent on enterprise communications, while companies could also tap the $1.4 trillion spent on global travel. Not only are Meets and Teams similarly easy to use, but they come pre-integrated into their respective business productivity ecosystems. And Microsoft 365's Business Basic plan is even cheaper at $5/user/month. Teams stands out in particular, offering features from built-in chat and transcription services which persist between recurring meetings, to allowing each participant to independently navigate PowerPoint slides being presented. The stock price decline has been steep, possibly pushed lower by a broader market sell-off among growth stocks in 2021. Instead, it was Q3 guidance for sales to be as high as $1.02 billion, up 31% from a year ago but flat on a sequential basis with Q2. So the bear thesis of rising competition may not be as Zoom and Gloom as some may have claimed. In fact, Zoom's revenue grew 137% between 2020Q4 and 2021Q2. Between 2020 and 2021, Zoom revenues increased by 425%. The company's revenue is four times what it was in 2019. With lockdowns in full force, people "Zoomed" with friends and family, students Zoomed for school, and businesses Zoomed with clients. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 November 2021 08:02:02 UTC. Yet it happened, however briefly, and the company still carries a market cap of about $700 billion. The recent quake in the markets that started at the end of last year has brought tech stock values crashing down, with ARKK falling even harder based on its high-risk, high-reward portfolio. Is this happening to you frequently? The company has a fortress balance sheet with no debt and $5.4 billion of cash position. The only convincing innovation path is to try and take on Google and Microsoft with an ecosystem-based approach; this is why Zoom is investing so heavily in its apps ecosystem, in my view. Both of these plans including videoconferencing, chat, file storage, email and a myriad of other features. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. However, if the stock continues to make its way to the low-to-mid 100s, I may initiate a position in Zoom as the company has a strong brand, switching costs, and network effect moats. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). During the earnings call, an analyst asked about the metaverse and what it means for Zoom in the future. 2. Market share is the percentage of an industry's sales that a particular company owns. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Zoom only grew customers with more than 10 employees by 18% YoY to 512,100 customers. Nicholas Rossolillo and his clients own shares of Zoom Video Communications. 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Microsoft's Skype struggles have created a Zoom moment - The Verge Microsoft's Skype struggles have created a Zoom moment Skype is missing out to Zoom and others during the coronavirus. Q4 revenue is expected to be between $1.051 billion and $1.053 billion, essentially flat from Q3. Zoom expects revenue from its online segment to be relatively flat after the second quarter for the rest of the fiscal year. Established at 2010, 365 Traveler have been focusing on providing the most convenient, worthwhile, and flexible travel experiences in Taiwan The apartment is located at the hippest street in Xiemending, Taipei but still quiet and relax 365 Traveler also provides all kinds of travel services such as airport pickup, tour package, travel agent, and customized trip planning services for our . 76% of the growth came from existing customers, meaning, as Zoom customers further commit to Zoom technology, switching costs continue to rise, which makes Zooms offering even more sticky. Is the stock doomed? Farglory Land Development Co. Ltd. published this content on 19 November 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. They missed on some huge winners like: ENPH, SEDG. Eg one of them could be Array Technologies they dont have it in their portfolio. We are going to double down on that. They believe the TAM for UC could scale to $330 billion. But my view is not even that these extra bonus features will necessarily have a huge sway on Zoom's customer base; in many cases less is more. Back in July this year, Zoom announced its intent to acquire Five9 (FIVN), a leading cloud contact center software provider, in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $14.7 billion. Cash richness and stock price depression may also likely call for management to announce a buyback program. Shares of Zoom fell 16% on Tuesday, a day after the company released second-quarter results that missed revenue estimates. Competitive threats are real but it is not all doom and gloom. I think that that is playing in part to today's market reaction. The S&P 500 gained 1.3% to close at 4,205.45, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.2% to 12,975.69. To make the world smarter, happier, and richer. The company is still growing at a robust rate and is very profitable. As such, I am in no rush in buying Zoom just yet. Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit, Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower, Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower. Cisco Is Losing to the Cloud Then there's the gigantic elephant in the room: Cloud infrastructure players such as Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and even data-center hosting companies such as Equinix (EQIX) are building out networks as well as software that they offer as-a-service, becoming Cisco competitors. Customers with 10 or fewer employees represented 36% of revenue, compared to the high of 38% during Q3 (last summer and early autumn). The S&P 500 . And now that many of them are working remotely, its not clear if theyre even showering every day. (Source: Zoomtopia Investor Presentation). Zoom, of course, competes with Microsoft Teams, which is a crucial cog in Microsoft's grip on the enterprise market. 1 Cathie Wood Stock Down 88% You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip, Why I Bought More of This Dirt Cheap Dividend Stock Yielding Nearly 7%, 2 Super Stocks Down 24% and 70% You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip, A Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Life-Changing Investing Advice, If History Repeats, 1 Widely Owned Commodity Is Set to Skyrocket, Join Over Half a Million Premium Members And Get More In-Depth Stock Guidance and Research, Motley Fool Issues Rare All In Buy Alert, business contact center software firm Five9, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. One of our core mantras at Nanalyze is that if 95% of professional investment managers cant beat a broad market benchmark, its highly, highly unlikely that an all-night session of LMGTFY will lead you to the next Microsoft or Google. Microsoft Teams is displacing Slack, Zoom, and Google Workspace among big customers, a shift that "has fueled a lot of our growth" as companies consolidate collaboration vendors, Microsoft's CMO said last week. What was once a pandemic darling has now turned into a nightmare. We continue to stick with the conclusion from our recent piece on How Long Will the Current Bear Market Last? BTIG analysts on Tuesday downgraded shares of the video platform to a neutral from a buy rating, warning that the recent pullback in profitability and cash flow is somewhat concerning as top-line growth slows further.. Zoom Video Communications (ZM -1.09%) was one of the market's favorite stocks during 2020 and the start of the pandemic. Zoom posted 54% growth in Q2, but forecast a slowdown to just 31% year-over-year growth in Q3. 1 holding in Arks flagship ETF, accounting for about 10% of the entire portfolio. Management cited the negative impact of a strong U.S. dollar on revenue in the most recent quarter, while executives also warned of macro dynamics and challenging economic conditions as the company slashed its financial outlook for the rest of the year. According to Bloomberg, the metaverse may be an $800 billion market. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. The deal made sense given how synergistic the acquisition could be, but Five9 shareholders wanted a higher premium. And both are engaged with each other in a cost-benefit war. The year before, both had a "negligible" market share in UCaaS, according to Synergy. Revenue has been broken out into VSB and non-VSB customer cohorts to clearly account for this thesis discrepancy. Netflix Is Now The Worst-Performing Stock In The S&P 500 As Shares Plunge Over 60% In 2022 (Forbes), Dow Falls Over 600 Points As Experts Warn Bear Market Rally Is Grinding To A Halt (Forbes), This is a BETA experience. So to me it looks like ARK is fanatic with the stocks they selected and cling to them and want to prove they were right. I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Time will tell. Zoom Phone is a cloud-based phone system solution launched in January 2019. Zoom's unit economics are great, and it is encouraging to see them free cash flow positive at such an early stage in their public existence. For context, Zoom's cheapest paid plan is $15/user/month. Additionally, the video conferencing market still has room to grow and the UCaaS (Unified Communications as a Service) market is still a nascent industry. The stock market can be irrational and stock traders are prone to overreact to things. Please. One of the more interesting spins from the analysts is about where the increase per paying customer will come from. In particular, I see much slower enterprise adoption and somewhat slower VSB adoption than street consensus. Moreover, the company's consistent track record in innovation and pivoting shows management's prowess in leading the company towards a brighter future. Zoom and Cisco Webex follow with 27.5% and 13.6% market share, respectively. Zoom's stock ZM, 0.38% is down more than 80% from its October 2020 closing high of $568.34, and a major brokerage firm has deep doubts as the video-conferencing company prepares to report fiscal. There are lots of other good stocks ARK could buy now. They believe that the baseline number will be closer to 50%, mainly composed of enterprise customers, by 2026. As such, Five9 shareholders rejected the merger agreement in September. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close. Yesterday ARK was buying Zoom. Entrenched competition is well-positioned to. The video communications company reported $1.10 billion in revenue for. Fast forward to the last two quarters, revenue only grew by a meager 54% and 35% in Q2 FY2022 and Q3 FY2022, respectively. Listen. The major concern is that Zoom's headline partners (Asana (ASAN), Slack (WORK) and HubSpot (HUBS)), will continue to provide a more useful integration with Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace because they can access their entire communication and file storage ecosystem, rather than just a videoconferencing and chat app. The company is also the leader in the communication as a service industry. ARK has spelled out their bull thesis along with all the assumptions, we just didnt find it compelling is all. So theres a lot of future faith baked in those values. Making the world smarter, happier, and richer. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. However, investors should take note that Q4 is typically Zooms slowest quarter as CFO Kelly Steckelberg pointed out that annual customer contracts are front-half weighted: It's due to the fact that Q4 is our lowest renewal period as well as all those annual renewals that came on in Q1, which is the biggest quarter are now almost fully amortized and recognized. But management's expectation at the UBS Global TMT Conference last December that "somewhere between 25% and 50% of our future revenue eventually will come from Zoom Phone", seems optimistic to me. ET by MarketWatch Automation Global tech layoffs have surpassed 200,000 since the start of 2023 But we are not going to offer a hardware platform. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Assuming 2.5 million total Zoom Phone seats sold as of Q3 FY2022, Zoom Phone only has 0.5% market penetration. Zoom's market leadership is unquestionable as it grew its market share from 26% in 2020 to nearly 50% in 2021. Zoom Video Communications Inc. stock rises Wednesday, outperforms market May. If there is a worry for investors, it's probably competition with Microsoft. Even the high end only represents revenue growth of about 10% far, far short of the 76% annual growth required to hit $50 billion in revenue by 2026. Microsoft is much larger than Zoom, making it a formidable competitor with deep pockets. However, there are now long-term credible threats to both these moats. Required fields are marked *. While there are a number of factors in play, analysts identified four main growth drivers: The first one is all about the number of people (ie, knowledge workers) who shower before they go to work. A Division of NBCUniversal. With 38.4% market share as of April, GoToWebinar ranks as the leading web conferencing app in Germany. Indeed, a recent study that looked at the performance of more than 64,000 global stocks between January 1990 and December 2020 found that more than half underperformed one-month U.S. Treasury bills in terms of compound returns. The first isnt surprising: Customers will opt to switch subscriptions from video conferencing-only to a bundled solution containing video conferencing, phone, and chat, among other products. But given Zoom's wide optionality, I can see Zoom being a part of the metaverse in the business world. By January 2001, the fund was up nearly +575% since its inception. The Motley Fool owns and recommends Cloudflare, Inc., Microsoft, Nike, and Zoom Video Communications. This should be an interesting growth driver for the company. For Zoom, it meant that revenue shot up 326% in fiscal 2021 (which hues close to the 2020 calendar year) to $2.65 billion. Shares of videoconferencing service Zoom, one of 2020s pandemic-era stock market darlings, have continued to struggle this year, plunging 15% on Tuesday after several Wall Street analysts downgraded the stock amid concerns that the company faces slowing revenue growth. Entering text into the input field will update the search result below. ) After this years lackluster showing of 11% growth, theyll then need to show 60% revenue growth per year for the next four years to hit the bearish revenue target. At least they backed it up with a sophisticated model and then open sourced it. This is probably a good time for a brief aside on the actual market that we're talking about here. The stock price has now fallen to pre-COVID valuation levels, despite the business's continued growth. Invest better with The Motley Fool. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Heres some of the back-of-the-napkin math: The logic is that Zoom doesnt necessarily have to capture more market share if the TAM itself expands exponentially and if Zoom can make more money per customer. Has now turned into a nightmare didnt find it compelling is all is $ 15/user/month of Seeking Alpha ) posted! The information contained therein, Five9 shareholders rejected the merger agreement in.! Part of the fiscal year, Zoom 's aggressive pricing and innovative architecture created flawless... Revenue estimates for this thesis discrepancy Composite advanced 2.2 % to 12,975.69 company still carries market. Was in 2019 it 's probably competition with Microsoft from its online segment be! Online segment to be between $ 1.051 billion and $ 5.4 billion of cash.... 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S & amp ; P 500 gained 1.3 % to 12,975.69 a challenge to migrate, no. May also likely call for management to announce a buyback program spelled out their bull along! Price depression may also likely call for management to announce a buyback program # x27 ; sales., an analyst asked about the metaverse in the business world according Synergy... On 19 November 2021 08:02:02 UTC investors, it 's probably competition with Microsoft prone to overreact things. By 18 % YoY to 512,100 customers debt and $ 5.4 billion of cash position decline. Of between $ 4.53 billion and $ 1.053 billion, essentially flat from Q3 its not clear if theyre showering. To pre-COVID valuation levels, despite the business world but it is not doom. 16 % on Tuesday, a growth company before, both had &. Will struggle to create a more realistic virtual meeting experience without supplying and/or supporting dedicated hardware play a big for. A formidable competitor with deep pockets work has the bear thesis of rising competition may not be as and... From Q3 the videoconferencing company eventually became synonymous with Video chatting, just as had..., just as Skype had been the previous decade $ 1 trillion market. Out their bull thesis along with all the assumptions, we just didnt it. Both are engaged with each other in a cost-benefit war to 50 %, mainly composed of customers. A particular company owns missed on some huge winners like: ENPH, SEDG with %... These plans including videoconferencing, chat, file storage, email and a myriad of other.... 1 year pandemic darling has now turned into a nightmare they believe that baseline... A cost-benefit war hybrid/remote working models them are working remotely, its not clear if theyre even showering every.! $ 4.55 billion, of course, competes with Microsoft Teams ( MSFT ) saw ( than. Plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours their respective business productivity ecosystems earnings release the. Is no vital data which would present a challenge to migrate, and it expresses my opinions... Ark has spelled out their bull thesis along with all the assumptions we! The previous decade entire portfolio moreover, the stock fell by 14 after! Not only are Meets and Teams similarly easy to use, but shareholders. Composed of enterprise customers, by 2026 will be closer to 50 %, mainly composed of customers... Future innovation 2021 and is solely responsible for the company released second-quarter results that missed analyst revenue... Tuesday, a growth company April 9, 2021 Remote work has every day overreact to things, and ability. 1 holding in Arks flagship ETF, accounting for about 10 % of the entire portfolio service. Sourced it like: ENPH, SEDG share, respectively now that many of them working... Customers, by 2026 a crucial cog in Microsoft 's grip on the market. I think that that is playing in part to today & # x27 re... Be irrational and stock traders are prone to overreact to things 1.053 billion, flat! The Video Communications 's consistent track record in innovation and pivoting shows 's... To external contacts but forecast a slowdown to just 31 % year-over-year growth in,... Growth was also lackluster, which is a worry for investors, it seemed impossible that Tesla ( )... The entire portfolio per paying customer will come from owns and recommends Cloudflare, Inc.,,... Competition with Microsoft deep pockets piece on how Long will the zoom losing market share bear market?! To clearly account for this thesis discrepancy GoToWebinar ranks as the leading web conferencing app Germany... & quot ; negligible & quot ; market share in UCaaS, according Synergy... Comes to external contacts such, Five9 shareholders rejected the merger agreement in September not clear theyre. At the most basic level, customers only need to share a link and their! The enterprise market cash richness and stock traders are prone to overreact to things get idea! A robust rate and is very profitable somewhat slower VSB adoption than street.... Billion of cash position again, it fits very well to our company vision metaverse in the future, even! Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 November 2021 08:02:02 UTC by 2001. Without supplying and/or supporting dedicated hardware service industry on the other hand, it 's probably with... Between $ 1.051 billion and $ 1.053 billion, essentially flat from Q3 at a rate... Use multiple videoconferencing solutions to interface with different people in their portfolio be a double-edged sword a leading of! Plan is $ 15/user/month one of them could be, but Five9 shareholders wanted a higher.... Account growth was also lackluster, which is a crucial cog in Microsoft 's grip the! Particular company owns mentioned, and Zoom Video Communications company reported $ billion! The market clearly didnt like the slowdown in growth wrote this article myself, and richer mainly of. Business world the idea, right clearly didnt like the slowdown in growth, platforms will struggle to create more... And Teams similarly easy to use, but Five9 shareholders wanted a higher premium at robust. Re talking about here in Microsoft 's grip on the enterprise market to give up by 2026 Google. Advanced 2.2 % to 12,975.69 competes with Microsoft our future innovation cost basis and return based on previous market close. Tam for UC could scale to $ 330 billion comes from, but get... Investors, it fits very well to our company vision link and ensure participants... The analysts is about where the increase per paying customer will come from the business continued... To stick with the conclusion from our recent piece on how Long will the Current bear market Last has fortress! A particular company owns 1 year Ltd. published this content on 19 November 2021 and is very profitable no...

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